Why did X-Men: Dark Phoenix fail at the box office?

The underwhelming opening weekend of the X-Men's final chapter is down to factors outside of the actual movie's control

Sophie Turner in 'X:Men - Dark Phoenix' (CREDIT: Twentieth Century Fox)

by Jack Linsdell

There's been a lot of outcry and debate around Simon Kinberg's X-Men: Dark Phoenix's soft/underwhelming opening weekend in North America of $33 million and "only" $140 million worldwide debut. Okay, yes the budget is around $200 million plus marketing costs, but the film may as yet rally around, especially overseas, considering the film nabbed $44 million in China already, so although not ideal numbers for a blockbuster movie, lets not doom it a massive failure until we've seen we're it gets to. Yes, an over/under $430 worldwide total would be scrapping the "in the clear" line in terms of profitability, however there are numerous factors as to why it's receiving these sorts of numbers, that are (mostly) through no fault on the actual movie (from a quality perspective) itself.

Firstly, X-Men: Apocalypse earned $543 million worldwide in 2016, a comedown of -27% from X-Men: Days of Future Past. If Dark Phoenix earns around $430 million total, then that's a -20% decrease, so a better one than it's predecessor. The X-Men franchise has always had smaller numbers than Marvel (and even most DC movies) anyway, so we were never looking at anything greater than Apocalypse's total anyway. Added to this, the series is far less popular than Marvel and DC because it is a more grounded and realistic superhero franchise, unlike the large-scale, larger-than-life fantasy of Marvel and DC Universes, which in my book makes X-Men more preferable to watch over the other brands. A slight digression, but DC seems to act as the middle-ground between the two with more grounded/grittier, X-Men-like instalments (Wonder Woman and Shazam!) and the more MCU-esque large-scale, fantasy epics like Aquaman. 

Furthermore, Captain Marvel coming out in March this year gave audience's a female-centric/led superhero movie that was generally well-received to the tune of $1.127 billion worldwide. And, obviously Avengers Endgame gave audiences a big superhero 'team-up' flick in late April/early May to the tune of a record smashing $2.732 billion worldwide. Therefore, by the time Dark Phoenix rolled into theatres, its promise of a female-centric superhero 'team-up' movie was brushed off by the general audience because Marvel had satisfied the demand for both core elements of Dark Phoenix in two, largely well-received and 'very' commercially successful superhero movies. Had Dark Phoenix kept its rescheduled February release date, it would have come out before Captain Marvel and Avengers Endgame, when audiences hadn't had a superhero movie for a few months and therefore would of satisfied a lot of general audience demand for female-centric and 'team-up' superhero flicks. This has to be a more important reason than the film's harsh critical reception and poor reviews (I disagree with the general consensus, as always - read my review here) because even poorer reviews would still have left Dark Phoenix as the leader of the pack, not picking up whatever audience interest was still left for superhero movies. Quite frankly, after the two Marvel releases made over a combined $3.5 billion worldwide (adding in the likes of DC's Shazam! to the tune of $363 million globally in April as well) then the general audience had been over-saturated/fulfilled with their superhero interests, making Dark Phoenix's sell something they didn't want/need. Think of it like having filled yourself up eating two cakes when your Mum walks in with another cake that combines the two core ingredients of both - are you going to eat it? No, probably not. 

Let's also not forget that the Disney-Fox merger meant that general audiences all knew that the X-Men property was being rebooted after Dark Phoenix and that the characters were to be recast and integrated into the more-popular Marvel Cinematic Universe. This actually undoes the whole "finale" sell of Dark Phoenix because general audiences will just wait until Marvel brings out their own version of the X-Men property. If this was just another instalment, or had Fox not been brought by Disney, then Dark Phoenix wouldn't have been on the back foot already before other variables (critical reception, tough competition etc.) could have an influence over it's commercial reception. Combine this with general lower box office takings for the X-Men series anyway and a lack of general audience interest in the property in comparison to Marvel and DC, then Dark Phoenix was pretty "doomed" anyway, which means that it's overall quality and reception is mere trivia, and thus only adding to one of the many obstacles that'll (most likely) prevent it clearing $500 million worldwide. 

Adding to this, let's not also forget how brutal the competition turned out to be, in that films like Aladdin overperformed and thus left Dark Phoenix as one of many large movies in the marketplace. Firstly, John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum has really broken out domestically and internationally to the tune of $255 worldwide, and sharp increase from John Wick: Chapter 2's $197 takings two years ago. This movie gave audiences grim-dark, gritty action sequences in which Dark Phoenix is largely constructed of, and thus it's overperformance has left that element of Dark Phoenix therefore on the park bench. Added to this, Aladdin's (well-deserved) overperformance to the current tune of $610 million worldwide, and other competition from The Secret Life of Pets 2 amongst others has left other options for families with young(er) children, snatching the core demographic away from Dark Phoenix. Worth noting is that 61% of the opening weekend audience were made up of over-25's showing that the majority of the kid-targeted audience had been stolen away. Yes, the film's dark and grittier tone/action is partly responsible for turning some young kids away (especially in comparison to the lighter, more colourful and uplifting tones/characters/story of Aladdin), but mostly, brutal competition didn't help. If Dark Phoenix was the only big movie in theatres, the conversation would be a different one we're having now.

Okay, look bad reviews don't help a film's box office potential in that they help paint a negative media narrative against the movie, which can discourage some people. However, even if it's bad, the fans are always guaranteed to show up anyway so they can have their opinion on whether they agree it's bad or not, plus they have passionate interest in the IP/characters anyway. For general audiences, bad reviews only hurt movies in a crowded marketplace where there are plenty of other options. For example, if Dark Phoenix had got bad reviews but was the only "big" movie around, then it would still hold the crown as the go-to movie. However, it isn't and other movies are doing just fine business, so that's partly why the movie's reception is having an indirect result on the box office, but only to a degree. And, let's also consider this argument too. Dark Phoenix is the end of the series as we know it, in this continuity, with these actors. So, apart from bragging rights for ending the series on a high, and despite the rumoured $100 million the film will lose for the studio, is it really that important how well Dark Phoenix does commercially? My answer is no. Sure, Fox and friends would sure like to make some money from this one, but they will survive, even if it's from the tonnes of money Bohemian Rhapsody made them last fall (nearly $900 million).

The truth is this is all just trivia. For these big movies, especially in a franchise, it only matters if your film bombs at the box office if you had plans/potentional/interest in making a sequel. Here, it's clear this is the end, so really leave Simon Kinberg alone, as to-be-honest, I think as a solo writer/director he's taken a lot of stick for making a halfway-decent movie. Okay, fans may be disappointed with the ending - although I fail to see how having one large (and well-staged) action finale with all the X-Men fighting alongside each other one last time is anything other than a potent and fitting final battle moment for fans. And, okay it loses pace a little here and there, and it's darker/grittier tones may put off some family/child-orientated general audiences. However, compared to if Daniel Craig had left Bond with Spectre which is full of plot-holes, boring action and untruthful character exploration, Dark Phoenix is a solid and very well-made movie, with no obvious "that's awful" moments for a general audiences or most fans. Kinberg actually brought stakes into some really well-constructed action scenes by showing that superheroes can be hurt too and his focus on character-drama allows us to spend time with these beloved characters in an intimate way before we say goodbye, which is surely a fitting way to end the series.

So, whether or Dark Phoenix recovers or continues to bomb at the box office, say to yourself; does this really matter? The answer is no, and Kinberg and co. should hold their heads up high that the commercial underperformance is (largely) down to no fault of there own. They made a good movie, and audiences failed to show up. Ask The Hate U Give, The 5th Wave or The Bourne Legacy how they feel. As long as the movie's good, the rest is all mere trivia folks. As ever, we'll see.