Michael Bay's 'Songbird': Will The Pandemic Make It Soar or Crash Harder?

Peter Berg's Patriots Day, Michael Bay's track record as a producer and a too-topical subject matter may make Songbird the water under a duck's back for audiences

KJ Apa/Sofia Carson (CREDIT: Jon Kopaloff/FilmMagic; Bennet Raglin/Getty Images)

                        by Jack Linsdell

Universal may get the official crown of "first movie to film post-lockdown" with their blockbuster sequel Jurassic World: Dominion. However, considering the Collin Trevorrow-directed flick was only resuming filming, the actual crown goes to Paramount for "first movie to begin filming post-lockdown". Their Michael Bay-produced pandemic thriller Songbird started shooting back in early July, gaining special permission from the respective guilds (and LA authorities) to do so. Bare in mind, this was when America's "peak" of the virus really started taking hold and LA was put under a special quarantine. As of the 3rd of August, it's officially wrapped. 

Anyway, the star-studded romantic-thriller (which apparently uses lots of "found footage") is hoping to become an ironic piece of film history by being "a film about a pandemic shot during a pandemic". I'm sure this will become it's main marketing hook (think Russell Crowe's road-rage thriller Unhinged and it's whole "first new theatrical release since March" thing), yet whether it becomes it's biggest commercial "sell" is a coin toss at best. Look, on the one hand, Songbird could become a modern event movie BECAUSE of the pandemic and it's highly topical subject matter (Clint Eastwood's American Sniper comes to mind). But, if history tells us anything, then the pandemic will only make it "crash" (commercially speaking) harder than under normal circumstances. 

In 2016, Peter Berg and Mark Wahlberg reunited on not one, but two "based on a real life disaster" flicks. Deepwater Horizon may not have been that great, but Patriots Day was a truly underrated modern classic. Following the harrowing events of the Boston Marathon bombings in 2013, the CBS Films/Lionsgate flick didn't become any more of an event to audiences despite it's swift three years later release date. It bombed with just $52 million on a $45 million budget, proving that audiences would rather escape real life and live in a musical fantasy (why La La Land earned $446 million that fall) than relive it by watching the highly topical drama. And, the same applies to Adam Mason's Songbird. Audiences have already had to endure, and live through, a pandemic (and will do so for the foreseeable future), one which has presented a grim new normal in which thousands have died, millions are unemployed and no one can venture outside without a mask and hand sanitizer. So, will (when cinemas eventually reopen fully) they want to risk a trip to the theatre to see a movie that just reminds them how tough and grim their life has and/or is? Probably not. 

Still, this isn't a criticism of Songbird per say as I don't know one person who didn't back in March say "I bet this will be made into a movie in a few years" when lockdown first began. The flick also features an attractive ensemble cast including Sofia Carson (who impressed recently in Netflix's Feel The Beat), KJ Apa (Riverdale, The Hate U Give), Demi Moore, Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell) and Bradley Whitford, and as previously mentioned is produced by Transformers legend Michael Bay. The movie itself sounds interesting and exciting enough too, following a young man (Apa) who during a pandemic lockdown has to overcome martial law, murderous vigilantes and a powerful, well-connected family to reunite with the love of his life (Carson). But, even if it was released before the pandemic (I don't know if this was written before lockdown and then adapted to the current climate or not), Songbird likely would have died a nasty theatrical death anyway. 

Most Michael Bay produced flicks over the last few years have outright bombed. Sure, he may be a marquee name in the credits as "producer" to popular hits like A Quiet Place and James DeMonaco's The Purge series. But, his involvement certainly didn't turn those into hits. The John Krasinski thriller flick broke big because of it's immense quality and pioneering form as a movie where hardly anyone talks, whilst The Purge was cheap enough ($3 million) that it's very topical subject matter would allow it to find a market and turn a profit. But, Bay also produced the sci-fi drama Project Almanac (which extensively used found footage like Songbird allegedly will) in 2014. That Dean Israelite flick bombed with only $33 million on a $12 million budget. Ditto, the teen sci fi flick I Am Number Four which hardly broke big in 2011 with just $150 million on a $50 million (plus marketing) budget. Heck, even Bay's own real world action thriller 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi only earned $69 million on a $50 million budget in 2016. Okay, we don't have the budget for Songbird, nor do we know it's quality, but even before the pandemic shut theatres, audiences struggled to turn up for low-budget adult, counter-programmers as it is. Bay as a producer doesn't have a great track record either, and add in the whole "people don't want to be reminded how bad their lives are" thing, then it seems the pandemic may actually make Songbird crash harder than it would under normal circumstances. 

Look, it'll be interesting to see if this whole lockdown situation will be mostly cleared up by the time Songbird is ready for release. I'd imagine at the earliest a fall date next year. If by then a vaccine has been found and normal life as we knew it has been somewhat restored, Songbird may play "better" because it's not quite so "of this moment" topical. But, even if it hasn't, Songbird could be another Patriots Day - a movie that bombs because it reminds us how depressing our current lives our. And that may be the difference between Steven Soderbergh's Contangion (a movie about a virus) trending on Netflix back in April and Songbird barely able to make a profit. As always, we'll see.