'Lion King 2' Could Break Disney's Sequel Curse

Minus the nostalgia for the 1994 original toon, the beloved songs and a marquee director, can The Lion King 2 break Disney's sequel curse for their modern live-action remakes?

'The Lion King' (CREDIT: Disney)

                    by Jack Linsdell

This week, Disney surprised us all when they announced The Lion King 2 is in active development. On paper, a sequel to Jon Favreau's 2019 "live action" blockbuster remake was always a case of "if not when". When The Lion King earns a whopping $1.6 billion worldwide, with $543 million in America alone, you don't expect Disney to just say "thanks" and move on. However, when you consider Disney's track record with sequelising their recent Katzenberg-era remakes, there's a reason why other billion-plus successes like Beauty and The Beast ($1.2 billion) and Aladdin ($1.05 billion) have not recieved sequels.

Anyway, it seems like writer Jeff Nathanson (who penned the 2019 musical adaption) has already completed the first draft for the sequel, which we're told isn't a remake of The Lion King 2: Simba's Pride from 1998. That means we're getting a completely original sequel (with presumably all new songs) which means that The Lion King 2 (or whatever it ends up being called) can't rely on generational nostalgia to make it a "must see" movie. Replacing Jon Favreau in the director's chair is Moonlight and If Beale Street Could Talk indie filmmaker Barry Jenkins. His Oscars success proves he's an excellent filmmaker, although whether he can pull of a big fantasy blockbuster remains to be seen. Having said that, Cate Shorthand went from the $788,000-grossing indie thriller Berlin Syndrome (which is terrific by the way) to Marvel's upcoming Scarlett Johansson-led blockbuster Black Widow, which looks damn good based on the trailers alone. 

But, a Barry Jenkins-helmed Lion King sequel could be a very interesting movie, not just in it's style and content, but also in regards to it's financial performance. You see, when Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland earns an impressive (and surprising) $1.05 billion worldwide on a $200 million budget in 2010, you can understand Disney's excitement for a sequel. However, with Burton busy filming Miss Peregrine's Home For Peculiar Children, James Bobin was subbed in to helm Alice Through The Looking Glass and the resulting measly $300 million cume on a $170 million budget made it a financial disaster. No disrespect to Bobin but he was the exact opposite of a marquee filmmaker. Burton was a big name, a popular auteur, whose movies had their own identity. Bobin was...well, just a name on the credits. Barry Jenkins may be more established and/or known than Bobin, but "a Lion King remake from the director of The Jungle Book and Chucky from the MCU" is far more of a sell than "directed by the guy who did that Best Picture-winning indie flick". That could harm The Lion King 2. 

The only other Disney live-action remake to gain a sequel was the Angelina Jolie-led fantasy flick Maleficent. In 2014, Robert Stromberg's popular remake proved that Jolie was still a "butts in seats" movie star when in a movie (or one based on popular IP) that audiences actually want to see. Cue an impressive $758 million worldwide cume on $180 million budget. Five years later and Joachim Rønning helmed the sequel Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, which underwhelmed with "only" $491 million worldwide on a $180 million budget despite adding Michelle Pffiefer to the mix. Sure, that 2019 flick was certainly a minor box office success, but in relation to the original, it was a big downturn. 

So clearly, Disney has not had success with sequels to their recent live-action remakes. Initial remakes of 1990s Disney toons in this modern age are popular because they put big stars (Angelina Jolie, Johnny Depp) in popular IP that audiences have a deep-rooted love for having essentially grown up watching the originals as kids. Add in modern technology, bigger budgets and more immersive/intense production values and filmmaking techniques, and modern remakes have a big commercial appeal. However, sequels to those remakes tend to be original stories, which ends up losing the whole nostalgia aspect from the sell and therefore loses a big chuck of the audience. Everyone has seen The Lion King as kids, so a modern remake with new stars, a (arguably) marquee director and modern VFX technology is most appealing. A wholly original sequel, minus the same director and cult songs may make The Lion King 2 another "yeah so" Disney sequel. 

Barry Jenkins has a chance to prove us all wrong and break a (for Disney) disconcerting trend of sequels to modern remakes of Katzenberg-era Disney toons flopping, failing or underperforming. The only thing going in favour of The Lion King 2 is that the 2019 flick's global cume was so high that even a 70% drop still gets it to $480 million global. Like James Cameron's Avatar sequels, it'll be interesting to see if audiences really do care enough about movies that gross over $1.5 billion that they'll show up again for the sequel. As ever, we'll see.